2023 outlook for major federal parties: Nanos

On the final 2022 episode of CTV News Trend Line, pollster Nik Nanos and host Michael Stittle discuss Canada’s main federal parties — and what drives them What’s going on this year, and what must they expect in 2023?


In another pandemic-ridden year, starting with the convoy protests, the Liberals face major challenges in their push to advance the 2022 agenda. “I don’t want to use the word excuse, but there’s a reason the Liberals haven’t been able to deliver and focus on their agenda,” Nanos said, “because there are other events, events on a massive scale that have overtaken it.”

But with the next federal election in 2025 (or earlier), time is ticking, Nanos says they are going to try to deliver some items on their agenda.

“In terms of Liberal forecasts for 2023, there are two words: The Hunger Games,” Nanos said, referring to speculation about whether Justin Trudeau would stay on as Liberal leader, as well as possible discussions within the cabinet and caucus. wrestling between competitors. “Is Justin Trudeau still on fire in his stomach to go on to another election?” Nanos asked.

Although Trudeau has Tell his cabinet he intends to run“He had to say that because he couldn’t be a lame-duck leader and a lame-duck prime minister,” Nanos said. “But I think people are going to put him under a microscope and look at and listen to everything he says and does to see if there’s any indication that he’s going to be the leader of the Liberal Party in the future, or maybe he won’t be. .”

According to Nanos, this could lead to an “embarrassing” year for some prominent Liberals to position themselves for a leadership campaign while remaining loyal to Trudeau.


In Nanos’ weekly national vote tracker, the Conservatives run against the Liberals throughout the year. Since January, the two sides have either been in the lead or been neck and neck for a long time, with the Conservatives taking a small but sustained one after Pierre Poilievre was crowned leader in September. many months.

The two parties were statistically tied a few weeks ago, but the Conservatives lead by four points in the latest tracking on December 9.

Nanos’ prediction for the Conservative Party in 2023 is a “focus” on fundraising, efforts to build their organization and “new electoral mechanisms”.

“Don’t underestimate Pierre Poilievre. He’s excellent at communicating, but he also knows what needs to be done to win elections,” said Nanos, who added that the Conservative leader will continue to attack the Liberals and institutions such as the Bank of Canada , and the media.

“He will use these attacks to become the red meat of the core Conservative Party in order to open their wallets and build up a war chest so that Pierre Poirier can have all the resources available to challenge the federal Liberals.”

New Democratic Party

With the vote split, the NDP was able to maintain vote support in the mid-20s throughout the year, which is “generally good news for the NDP and bad news for the Liberals,” Nanos said. But the life and death question for the party remains whether they can continue to back and support the Liberals through a confidence and supply deal.

Just this week, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said he was ready to withdraw from the deal struck in March – in which his party agreed to back the Liberals in the crucial Commons vote to avoid triggering an election before 2025 – If the Liberals fail to address the crisis in our health care system.

That rivalry will continue in 2023, when the NDP will have to decide what action they are ready to push the Liberals to take, Nanos said. “They have their dental plan. What else will they ask for as part of the deal with the Liberals? How are they going to weather a storm that’s going to happen at some point,” Nanos said.

“How will they navigate the next crisis in which the Liberals may not be optimistic, with the NDP looking like they’re backing a government going through turmoil in 2023?”

For the rest of Nanos’ analysis of the Green Party and Bloc Quebec, as well as the full Trend Line episode, click play in the video player above or listen in the podcast player below.

ZOSE News Trendline will return after the festival on January 18, 2023.

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